Three Door Dilemma

Remember Monty Hall and the TV show Let’s Make a Deal? Monty offers you the contents behind one of three doors (only one door hides something valuable). After you make your choice, Monty will show you the contents of one of the two remaining doors, which was always a dud prize (like a goat). Then he will ask you whether you want to keep your original door choice, or switch to the other closed door. That is the big dilemma: is it better to keep your first choice, switch to the other door, or doesn’t it matter (because the odds are 50/50 with two doors remaining)?

Note: In this game, Monty always shows an empty door (goat) after you make your first choice, and then you are always offered a choice of keeping your first choice or to switch to the other door.

What do you think is the best strategy?

Always switch

Never switch

Doesn’t matter (50/50)

How confident are you in your strategy?

Low

Medium

High

Now test your strategy!

Try to determine what the best strategy is by playing the following game at least 50 times with each strategy. Are you surprised by the results? Check our explanation after you’ve played for a while. Java must be enabled in your browser for the following applet to run.

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Check our explanation for the best strategy.

23 responses to “Three Door Dilemma”

  1. San Diego Dui

    Hello! Thanks for trying the 3 door game.You tried one strategy where you switched half the time and stayed half the time looking for a pattern. You won approximately 40% of the time with that strategy.There are other strategies you could try. Try staying all the time and then try switching all the time. See which of those three strategies yields the highest winning percentage. You will find a clear winning strategy.By the way, the software uses a good random process, so you will never find a pattern to this game.Gary
    +1

  2. Randi Smith

    I was not suprised by my results at all. I switched 34 times and got a 66%

  3. Bri Lanyon

    I played this game 20 times. I was just clicking. I kept changing my door because i think you have a better change if you keep changing rather then trying to keep your original door. Change is always good.

  4. Danessa Theall

    I played the game six times and won five of those games. My strategy is to always switch because you start out with three doors knock one down you only have two left… It is really all about chances i believe but do agree to keep switching and make your chances higher.

  5. Alex Wuest

    I was always told to stay with your first answer when taking an exam, so I took this strategy with me while I played this game. After playing the game, I realized that my strategy is not always correct. My results were 38%. I played an additional game and used the strategy of switching my answers. My percentage jumped up to 46%. Even though using the strategy of switching my answers seemed like the better option, I came to conclusion that this game is just luck.

  6. Brandi Marr

    I played using each strategy 50 times. When I did not change my choice, my percentage of winning games was 38.
    When I did change my choice, my percentage was 69. When I changed half the time and did not change half of the time, my percentage was 48. I was surprised. My thought initially was to stay the same. My results concur with the explanation of the best strategy.

  7. Rosalyn Paulino

    I play so many times trying to find a specific pattern, then realized there is no pattern. Just chances and coincidence. At time I the system lets you wins every four time I played if I switch. Later on I noticed that always work.

  8. msimmons

    I stuck wth the same answer 12 out of 15 tries. I found the jackpot on 8 of 15 tries.

  9. Tawsha Osburn

    With switching, you still have a chance to win or lose. The second guess is a 50 s0 possibility to have the correct answer. With 3 choices, you have a 33% chance of getting the correct answer. If the first choice is wrong then I say to switch. I say this because you will still have a 66% chance of getting the right answer.

  10. carlos felix

    switching is the way to go

  11. kristi

    I never switched or stayed on a regular basis and never won on a regular basis either. I think I would be a bad gambler.

  12. Joseph F

    It’s not a game of chance, when switching it increases your chances by 33 percent giving you a 66 percent chance of winning. Read the explanation. It’s called the Monty Hall problem, very famous.

  13. Elle Anderson

    I wanted the the strategy to always switch, because it’s chance. Am I lucky? Am I not? Hmm, not so lucky.

  14. Amber

    I choose to move everytime and I got 14 out of 20. I think it’s just a random find.

  15. Sokha Lourm

    1. games won 23, games stayed 29 games switced 28
    2. To me i think that there was probably a pattern to the game. just need to figure it out to win more wins
    3. find the pattern then it can be solved

  16. Nora

    kim, the odds are actually 66% in favor of wining if you switch, not 50/50. That’s what Marilyn vos Savant demonstrated quite eloquently.

  17. Al

    After a few tries it’s pretty easy to determine which door to pic at what time, I wasn’t surprised with the results.

  18. Brier McCloud

    I was not to surprised, but I don’t think I should ever go on a game show

  19. Justin Green

    I was very surprised with the results but i think this game has alot to do with luck and insticts

  20. kim

    I am not surprised at the results because you always have a 50-50 chance of winning just like in a coin toss

  21. kathleen garcia

    I wasn’t surprised at the results..after all it’s only a game of chance.

  22. Hannah Potter

    always switch because it increases your chance by 33%

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